翻译
遭疯抢，售罄，这个行业突然爆火，多路巨头杀入_我的网站
一 | 这个“双11”，潮玩圈的焦点意外落在了“纸片”上。
10月20日晚8点，由TOPPS打造的TOPPS X THE MONSTERS/LABUBU系列收藏卡上线，成为不少消费者铆足劲争夺的目标。 Editor's Note:
With China's population of seniors over 60 surpassing 300 million, ensuring a happy and fulfilling life for all seniors has become a pressing issue for both families and the nation. How can the new generation of seniors in China break away from traditional norms and embrace a different lifestyle, supported by AI technology, multiculturalism and an elder-friendly society?
The series "Old Age, New Trends" explores emerging trends in the silver economy, creative social norms among senior citizens and innovative eldercare services. It examines the opportunities and challenges presented by an aging society, highlighting the diverse lifestyles of seniors and the booming eldercare industry in China. Beneath these new trends lies a reflection of Chinese modernization, which aims to provide more secure systems and dignified lives for its senior population.
Polar journeys require money, good health and patience for long flights and itineraries that may change with the weather. Yet on ships bound for Antarctica, and tours reaching into the Arctic, retired teachers, doctors, researchers and business managers are becoming easier to find.
After decades scheduled around work and family, they now possess something that was once just as scarce as money: uninterrupted time.
By the end of 2025, China had 323.38 million people aged 60 or above, accounting for 23 percent of its population, according to the Xinhua News Agency. Their incomes, health and family circumstances vary enormously, and polar travelers remain a small, relatively affluent group. Still, their choices bring one change into sharp focus: For some among this new generation of retirees, growing older no longer means simply drawing the boundaries of life inward. It may also be a chance to return to journeys postponed for decades.
Behind every such journey lies a practical calculation: Is the body ready? Is the expense manageable? Can family responsibilities be set aside long enough? The answers are reshaping both travel products and ideas about life after work. At the farthest reaches of the map, some Chinese retirees are asking a new question: With their careers behind them and years still ahead, where do they want to go next?
No longer waiting
In early 2025, 63-year-old He Man stood on a snow-covered slope at Port Charcot in Antarctica and looked back toward the sea.
The Silver Endeavour, the ship that had brought her there, had shrunk to a white speck against the blue water. Penguins wandered nearby. "Standing there, I suddenly realized how small I was - and how small my problems were," she told the Global Times.
It was a journey He Man had postponed for most of her adult life. Before retiring, she was a deputy chief physician at the dental center of Shenzhen People's Hospital in Shenzhen, South China's Guangdong Province. During her 38-year medical career, most days she got up at 6 am, arrived at the hospital around 7 and began seeing patients at 8. On busy days, patients queued up outside her consulting room and she could barely stop for a drink of water.
During the last 20 years of her career, she had no more than 15 days of annual leave each year. Once time was set aside for caring for elderly relatives and looking after her child, what remained was enough only for short trips. She had visited several countries in Europe and North America, but Antarctica remained beyond reach.
"Antarctica had always been a dream, but I never really dared to imagine going," she said. The possibility became real only after friends from university made the journey in 2023 and 2024 and encouraged her to follow. By then, she had retired at 60. More important than anything else, she said, was that her time was finally her own.
In October 2024, she booked a place on an expedition ship carrying about 200 passengers. She went with her husband, a neighboring couple and another couple with whom they often traveled, forming a group of six.
The early-booking cruise fare exceeded 150,000 yuan ($22,250) per person. She and her husband later paid another 40,000 yuan each to upgrade their flights to business class.
"On a journey this long, at our age, we should treat ourselves well," she said. The flights between China and South America alone took more than 30 hours. The entire journey eventually lasted 41 days, combining an 11-day Antarctic cruise with visits to Argentina, Brazil, Peru and Chile. "Since we had flown so far, we wanted to see it all in one go."
The journey began with a lesson in polar uncertainty. To catch a period of calmer weather across the Drake Passage, the ship moved its scheduled departure from noon to 6 am.
The couple reached the port in Chile before dawn after barely sleeping, only to learn that replenishment and repairs had taken longer than expected. The weather window closed, and the captain diverted through the Beagle Channel while waiting two days for conditions to improve.
The retired doctor did not regard the delay as time lost. Marine biologists, ornithologists, geologists and polar historians delivered lectures on board throughout the day, while passengers watched the fjords outside. "There were many older people on the ship. We had time, and nobody was really in a hurry," she said.
When she finally stepped onto the Antarctic snow, she said she was so overwhelmed that she wanted to cry. The trip did not remove the pressures waiting for her at home, but it changed the scale on which she viewed them.
"When I feel stressed or upset now, I think of Antarctica," she said. "Life is only so long. Don't hold yourself too tightly. Let go when you should."
According to He Man, people aged 60 or above accounted for more than half of the passengers on board, while Chinese travelers also made up more than half. After returning home, some of the travelers from Shenzhen created a WeChat group, while others had already begun discussing their next destination.
Travel agencies specializing in expedition cruises have noticed the same pattern. Zhang Xinyuan, founder and CEO of Newayer Cruises, told the Global Times that the company entered the Antarctic market in 2008 and sent its first group the following year. It has since served approximately 6,000 travelers on trips to the Arctic and Antarctica.
Among its customers, more than 65 percent are aged over 50, with those between 55 and 65 forming the largest group.
The makeup of that group has changed. Before 2020, Zhang said, most of the agency's polar customers were private business owners, senior executives and their family members. In recent years, the professional backgrounds of its customers have become more varied, with retired teachers, doctors, researchers and managers from public institutions increasingly represented. Retired women traveling alone have also become more visible.
Their journeys do not necessarily end after one polar voyage. Zhang once regarded Antarctica as a once-in-a-lifetime destination, but found that some customers continued on to the Arctic, the Galapagos Islands or wildlife reserves in Africa.
She cited a recently retired couple who booked trips to both Antarctica and the Arctic. While still aboard the Arctic cruise, they asked to reserve places on a southern Africa itinerary planned for the following year.
Industry data suggest that this is a growing, though still expensive, segment of the travel market. During the 2024-25 Antarctic season, Chinese nationals accounted for 10 percent of passengers traveling with operators belonging to the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators, or IAATO, the second-largest share after the US.
In the 2025-26 season, IAATO operators recorded 85,195 visitors who landed in Antarctica and another 27,217 cruise-only passengers. The association said China had seen the greatest post-pandemic increase among the main sources of Antarctic travelers.
Data released by Tongcheng Travel offer a closer view of the high-end market. From January to September 2025, travelers aged between 50 and 70 accounted for more than 70 percent of users booking outbound luxury cruises on the platform. Among customers purchasing polar cruise products priced above 100,000 yuan, more than 90 percent were classified by the company as silver travelers.
As the customer base changes, the product is changing with it. Zhang said the longest flights, rather than the cruise itself, often present the greatest physical challenge. On board, travelers can decide whether to join shore landings, hikes or Zodiac cruises according to their physical fitness and health condition.
At Newayer Cruises, travelers aged between 75 and 80 are generally asked to provide medical documentation and travel with a family member. Its group products include emergency medical and evacuation insurance, while tour leaders accompany passengers from departure.
The agency has also added Chinese-language services and meals familiar to Chinese passengers, while leaving more space in itineraries rather than packing each day with activities. Flexibility is needed for reasons beyond the traveler's own health.
Polar travel occupies the expensive outer edge of a much broader change in how older Chinese people spend their time. By the end of 2025, China had 323.38 million people aged 60 or above, accounting for 23 percent of the population. Those aged 65 or above numbered 223.65 million, or 15.9 percent.
The National Bureau of Statistics noted that people aged between 60 and 64 made up a relatively large part of the older population, and that many were still healthy and participated in social activities.
Travel is becoming one outlet for this age group. Data cited by the National Development and Reform Commission show that older travelers account for more than 20 percent of China's total tourist numbers.
Du Peng, dean of the School of Population and Health and director of the Institute of Gerontology at Renmin University of China, noted in a CCTV interview that more than 20 million people would enter old age each year over the following decade. Compared with earlier generations, he said, many would be better educated, assess their own health more positively and use the internet with greater ease.
Policy is beginning to respond to this more varied picture of old age. A State Council document on developing the silver economy calls for replacing rigid age restrictions on travel with assessments based more closely on health, while expanding travel insurance and strengthening consumer protection.
Still, the retirees boarding polar ships should not be treated as a portrait of all 323 million older Chinese people. They are a relatively small group able to meet three demanding conditions at once: sufficient savings, good health and control over their time.
Therefore, what these polar travelers demonstrate is not that every retirement should become an expensive adventure. Rather, they show that later life is becoming less uniform: rest and care remain essential, but for some people, retirement may also contain study, creative work, new friendships and journeys once postponed by jobs and family obligations.
Back in Shenzhen, He Man now divides her Xiaohongshu (RedNote) posts between dental-health advice and notes from her travels. Antarctica has been crossed off the list, but the list itself continues to grow.
She is considering a trip to see the animal migration in Africa and another to watch the aurora in Iceland. The Arctic is lower down on her list.
The Arctic can wait. This time, the delay is hers to decide.
。《每日经济新闻》记者查询发现，该卡牌有着60天预售期且一人限购五套的“高门槛”。即便如此，卡牌开售不久便宣告售罄，原价469元的套装，在二手平台有的已溢价至600元，溢价约30%。 LABUBU卡牌的火爆，只是国内卡牌市场升温的一个缩影。如今，“纸片经济”战场已硝烟弥漫：宝可梦携简体中文版卡牌加速布局中国市场，卡游等头部厂商激战渠道与赛事；爱奇艺、阅文等文娱巨头跨界入场，影视IP（知识产权）卡牌GMV（商品交易总额）破亿元⋯⋯ 在此背景下，10月21日，潮玩行业龙头公司泡泡玛特发布的公告显示，2025年第三季度整体收益（未经审核）同比增长245%~250%，其中，中国收益同比增长185%~190%，海外收益同比增长365%~370%。 热潮背后，记者了解到，潮玩与卡牌用户的高度重合成为关键。卡牌市场分析师、卡有江湖主编杨躺躺向《每日经济新闻》记者指出：“（外界）普遍认为卡牌用户都是学生，泡泡玛特用户都是成年人，其实它们的客户群体有很多是重合的。比如，很多玩卡牌的学生也会玩泡泡玛特。但泡泡玛特在营销上更侧重于塑造以成年用户为主的形象。” 值得注意的是，杨躺躺观察到，传统的、没有玩法的IP授权卡牌是市场主体，可现在主流IP基本都被授权过一轮了。“竞争者越来越多，大家只能在价格和产量上内卷。这种模式只会把市场做乱，而非做大，所以IP收藏卡市场会越来越难做，规模也可能随之萎缩。” LABUBU粉丝“移情”卡牌： 469元套装二手平台溢价约30% 10月20日20点，LABUBU的卡牌在TOPPS天猫官方旗舰店开启预售，469元一套的定价并不低廉，且平台标注为60天内发货，每人限购五套。即便如此，《每日经济新闻》记者发现，开售不久后卡牌便显示“无法购买”。TOPPS客服回应称，产品“仅限会员购买，限时48小时售卖”，但对于具体销量及补货计划均未透露。 卡牌的热度迅速蔓延至二手市场。记者查询发现，原价469元的套装有的已溢价至600元。LABUBU传统的挂件、盲盒等产品成交均价则呈下降趋势，形成鲜明反差。 这款卡牌的吸引力源于多重稀缺价值。TOPPS的官方账号显示，作为THE MONSTERS十周年系列巡展的联动产品，它复刻了巡展核心视觉装置元素，所有艺术形象均由LABUBU创作者龙家升亲笔创作。套装中包含龙家升亲笔签名的限量隐藏款“签名卡”及“折射卡”等特殊品类，官方直言其“兼具收藏价值与艺术价值”。这与近期上海THE MONSTERS十周年巡展引发的热潮形成呼应，该展览连苹果CEO（首席执行官）库克都专程到访，IP影响力可见一斑。
二 | 另外，跨界合作也踩中了快速增长的市场风口。据百谏方略的调查研究，2025年全球收藏集换式卡牌市场规模将达到72.67亿美元，预计2032年达到154.33亿美元，年均复合增长率为11.36%。在全球收藏集换式卡牌市场高度集中的竞争格局中，主要企业被划分为三个竞争梯队。 第一梯队为全球头部企业，包括宝可梦、科乐美、Panini、卡游、Tokaratomy、威世智、Topps Company、万代南梦宫等。
三 | 从市场规模来看，中国、美国、日本的卡牌市场规模居前，2024年分别为263亿元、219亿元、147亿元。其中，中国市场已成为全球最大的卡牌市场之一，而中国卡牌消费者的人均支出仅为日本的六分之一和美国的三分之一，未来将释放其巨大的增长空间。 值得注意的是，此次卡牌并非泡泡玛特自研，而是与TOPPS合作推出。对于“泡泡玛特自己做卡牌会成功吗”，杨躺躺直言：“一定会火一阵，但能火多久很难说。”他解释称，资金与热度分流可能冲击核心盲盒业务，而泡泡玛特当前战略侧重化妆品、饰品等“有用”的IP延伸，布局纯收藏卡牌的动力尚不充足。 更关键的是，杨躺躺认为：“卡牌（尤其是能长久运营的）需要像宝可梦那样有强大的玩法（如TCG集换式卡牌游戏）和赛事体系支撑，而不仅仅是收藏价值。让LABUBU这样的IP去构建一套有生命力的对战玩法，挑战很大。
四 | ” 泡泡玛特、爱奇艺、阅文： 多方势力涌入“纸片经济” 过去两年，中国卡牌市场迎来前所未有的竞争浪潮。 天眼查专业版数据显示，截至目前，我国现存“卡牌”相关企业2000余家。从地域分布看，广东、辽宁、海南相关企业数量位居前三。
五 | 全球卡牌头部IP宝可梦也看中了中国市场的增长潜力，2022年发布简体中文版卡牌，并在北上广深等多地开设场馆，短短三年间，简体中文版产品发售屡屡“秒空”，进一步推动了整个集换式卡牌的生态爆发。 “中国作为全球最大的单一消费市场，人口基数与消费能力的双重提升，为宝可梦提供了巨大的增长空间。”华创证券研究所传媒分析师赵海楠指出，虽然未有公开数据拆分中国市场收入占比，但自2022年后，宝可梦的全球营收与卡牌销量均显著提速，“卡牌销售数量在2022年后提高了一个量级”。 国内卡牌市场也在全面提速。行业格局逐渐清晰，除了头部厂商如卡游、闪回、集卡社在渠道、赛事和IP版权上展开激烈竞争；文娱内容巨头爱奇艺、阅文集团、姚记科技等也跨界入局，助力剧集、动漫与游戏实现“影游联动”，财报显示，2025年上半年，爱奇艺自营影视卡牌业务商品交易总额（GMV）突破亿元。而潮玩品牌如泡泡玛特也在探索“潮玩×卡牌”联动，通过艺术家联名、限量发售与拆盒机制强化收藏属性。 相较于宝可梦等国际卡牌产品，国内卡牌生命周期普遍较短，比如今年上半年，伴随《哪吒之魔童闹海》热播也曾引发一阵卡牌追逐热潮，但热度也仅持续数月。 占据中国卡牌市场份额超七成的卡游，其奥特曼卡牌曾在中国市场风靡一时，出现在各个学校门口，如今也逐渐回归冷静。卡游2021年、2022年分别售出12.71亿包（盒）和22.86亿包（盒）集换式卡牌，但2023年前9个月仅售出10.40亿包（盒），销量下滑明显。 接近卡游的人士对《每日经济新闻》记者坦言，卡游不会通过限量参与二级市场炒作。“企业基因还是偏产品属性，是作为一个娱乐产品去做的，国内国外都是这样。卡游的量会比较大，更想把产品品质做好。
六 | ” 从“爱好”到“投资” “卡牌热”的下半场是TCG？ 多位受访对象表示，和国外市场不同，当前中国的卡牌市场仍以“爱好”为主，且人群年龄较小，投资属性较弱。 但杨躺躺认为，IP热度的维持离不开二级市场的刺激。
七 | “中国的卡牌市场已经到了非常卷的阶段，但中国很多卡牌企业没有深耕一个IP的想法，更多的是在用快消品思维做卡牌，而不是收藏品思维。” 稀缺性仍是卡牌价值的核心逻辑。赵海楠认为，市场的可持续性取决于官方对供需平衡的把控。
八 | “控制发行量、限定比例、打击黄牛等都是关键。
九 | 若大量复刻经典高价值卡、稀释稀缺性，市场就会出现‘供给过剩、需求透支’的风险。” 赵海楠指出，从行业结构来看，当前的中国卡牌市场相较前两年正趋向成熟与多元化，具体来说有更多的IP进行了卡牌化衍生，客群的年龄结构伴随IP的多元化更趋均衡。“短期波动是必然的，但整体市场更趋成熟与多元化。
十 | 现在的用户画像以15岁至35岁为主，男性占多数，但女性比例正稳步上升。” 不过，行业仍存在明显短板。赵海楠指出，若要真正实现从“爱好”到“投资”的过渡，中国市场需要完善基础设施，包括具备公信力的评级机构、统一的卡牌品控标准、成熟的二级交易平台与相应的法律监管。 在杨躺躺看来，接下来中国卡牌需要往TCG（集换式卡牌）方向发展，“从2025年开始，靠玩法拉动用户、靠赛事维系热度。收藏卡市场正在萎缩，但对战卡牌的生命周期更长、复购率更高”。 “卡牌是一种可视化的文化资产——它能拆、能玩、能藏，还能升值。随着成年玩家成为主力消费群体、TCG玩法普及，卡牌行业正从“玩具经济”迈向“兴趣资产”时代。
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