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Poland waits for final election result after ruling party and opposition claim a win_我的网站

A |     本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开：                    1、战争拐点出现，原油还有机会吗？          2、市场情绪回暖后，有哪些主力线索？                    如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。    WARSAW, Poland -- The majority of voters in Poland's general election supported opposition parties that promised to reverse democratic backsliding and repair the nation's relationship with allies, including the European Union and Ukraine, according to projections Monday.After a bitter and emotional campaign, turnout was projected at almost 73%, the highest level in the country's 34 years of democracy and surpassing the 63% who turned out in the historic 1989 vote that toppled communism. In the city of Wroclaw, the lines were so long that voting continued through the night until nearly 3 a.m.A so-called late exit poll by Ipsos suggested that voters had grown tired of the governing nationalist Law and Justice party after eight years of divisive policies that led to frequent street protests, bitter divisions within families and billions of euros (dollars) in funding held up by the EU over rule of law violations.Poland's currency, the zloty, strengthened against the dollar and the euro on news of the opposition gains.The outcome could also affect ties with neighboring Ukraine, which Poland has supported in the war against Russia's aggression. The good relations soured in September over Ukraine grain entering and affecting Poland's market.The Ipsos poll showed that three centrist opposition parties that campaigned on a promise to reverse the illiberal drift of the government had together secured around 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, or Sejm, a clear majority.“I am really overjoyed now," Magdalena Chmieluk, a 43-year-old accountant, said Monday morning. The opposition "will form a government and we will finally be able to live in a normal country, for real.”The opposition parties faced many disadvantages in contesting the election, said Jacek Kucharczyk, president of the Institute of Public Affairs, a Warsaw think tank.The governing party mobilized its administrative resources to help itself, including by controlling the election administration and by an unfair division of votes in electoral districts, he said.“This success is even more remarkable knowing that the whole playing field was uneven. The electoral system was really tilted toward the government,” Kucharczyk told The Associated Press. “You could say that the opposition had to fight this election with one hand tied behind its back and they still won.”Still, Poles on Monday were facing weeks of political uncertainty. Law and Justice won more votes than any single party and said it would try to build a new government led by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.“No matter how you look at it, we won,” Law and Justice campaign manager Joachim Brudzinski said Monday in an interview on RMF FM radio.President Andrzej Duda, an ally of Law and Justice, must call the first session of the new parliament within 30 days of the election and designate a prime minister to try to build a government. In the meantime, the current government will remain in a caretaker role.The tradition in the democratic era has been for the president to first tap someone from the party with the most votes, but he is not required to do so.It was not clear how Law and Justice could realistically hold onto power, unless it managed to win over some lawmakers from opposition parties, something it did in the past to maintain the thin parliamentary majority it held for eight years. But that seemed unlikely given the large number that would need to change allegiances.The leader of the agrarian PSL party, a frequent kingmaker in past governments, ruled out cooperating with Law and Justice, known in Poland as PiS, after running with the Third Way coalition.“Those who voted for us want change, want a change of government, want PiS removed from power," Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said on RMF FM.The Ipsos poll showed Law and Justice with 36.6% of the votes cast; the opposition Civic Coalition, led by former European Council President Donald Tusk, with 31%; the centrist Third Way coalition with 13.5%; the Left party with 8.6%; and the far-right Confederation with 6.4%.The electoral commission said it expected to report the final result Tuesday.Tusk on Sunday evening declared that it was the end of Law and Justice rule and that a new era had begun for Poland.But not all rejoiced over the projected outcome. “I am disappointed with the results but I accept the democratic choice," said Elzbieta Szadur-Urbanska, a 58-year-old psychologist who voted for Law and Justice. “I think my party is also democratic.”Others were concerned about possible obstacles to a smooth transfer of power.The public television broadcaster, TVP, was reporting on Monday that Law and Justice had won the election.Cezary Tomczyk, vice chairman of Tusk’s party, said the governing party would do everything it could to try to maintain power. He called on it to accept the election result, saying it was the will of the people to give power to the opposition.“The nation has spoken,” Tomczyk said. Even if the opposition parties take power, they will face difficulties in putting forward their agenda. The president will have the power to veto new legislation, while the constitutional court, whose role is to ensure that new laws don't violate the basic law, is loyal to the current governing party, Kucharczyk said.“Fixing the relations with the EU in particular will require domestic changes, namely restoring the independence of the judiciary, restoring the rule of law, which is a condition for the EU to release the funding for Poland,” Kucharczyk said. “It will be a very, very prolonged and difficult process."___Associated Press journalists Pietro De Cristofaro, Kwiyeon Ha and Rafal Niedzielski contributed to this report.。                   新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。                   1、战争拐点出现，原油还有机会吗？          投资市场一夜之间变天。昨天大家看到伊朗局势出现缓和迹象，原油市场随即暴跌，从120美元/桶迅速回落至80美元/桶左右，跌幅近25%。在前两天的音频中，我们就曾提醒：原油短期的暴升可能只是暂时效应；一旦突破100美元/桶后再参与，无异于“火中取栗”，风险极高。今天大家也见证了其剧烈波动。                   这次油价暴跌的背后，是特朗普态度的突然转变。他在昨日接受媒体采访时亲口承认：“伊朗这场战争基本上结束了——不是本周，但会很快。”特朗普重新定义了他对“胜利”的理解。此前，他或许曾幻想通过突袭打击推翻伊朗政权，扶植一个亲美傀儡政府，从而将伊朗庞大的石油资源一半纳入美国囊中。但如今，他已退回到最初发动战争时公开宣称的最简单目标：削弱伊朗的军事实力、摧毁其核能力。                   在接受采访时，他将自己的目标重新锚定在这一“对外说得出口”的原始诉求上。

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